Poland & Kiev

11 August: Vilnius - Gdansk

I've only been in Poland for 5 hours, only one of those daylight, and it's already stealing my heart away from the Baltics. The overnight bus made a flattish "V" shape southwest out of Lithuania to Olsztyn, and then northwest to Gdasnk. I had a good feeling about Poland as soon as I entered it. The road cuts its way through forest, and I snatched glimpses of the forest in the headlights of the bus through broken, disorientating sleep and despite increasing grumpiness at the prospect of developing deep vein thrombosis. Four hours later we stopped at Olsztyn for a few minutes, and as I stepped off the bus to stretch my veal-calfised legs, I looked back east and was treated to this for a sunrise.




Finally, as if designed to break down the last of anyone's resistance, the countryside on the way back up towards the Baltic coast opens up and dares you not to be impressed. I've wanted to come to Poland for a long time, and I'm happy I finally got round to it.

12 August: Gdansk

What a difference a day makes. Gdansk is a foreboding, sinister feeling city, and I feel distinctly uneasy here. Some cities have a good feel to them, and some have a bad feel. There are varying degrees of good and bad, but they're always one or the other - they never leave me feeling totally indifferent. And Gdansk, for me, is definitely not a good city. I feel on edge here, and tomorrow I'm getting the hell out here. I don't care where, but back to nature, back through that countryside I liked so much and towards the lakes is appealing.

I can't say I've been unlucky, given this is the only unenjoyable day I've had in 4 weeks, but to an extent you make your own luck, and I have to go and seek out the good things again.

The highlight of Gdansk, for me, was seeing the world's oldest recorded evidence of a gurn. This guy looks like a mate after a heavy session at DC10.



13 August: Gdansk - Mikołajki

Again, what a difference a day makes. I caught a train to Olsztyn and onward bus to the lakes. Again I was mesmerised by the countryside. The further I went, the more magnificent it became. At first it was flat, expansive plains that stretched out as far as the eye could see, and then later became more undulating. But always, always bathed in rich and vivid colours - golds, greens and countless shades of earth. It was like agriculture as visual art. And when we got closer to my destination - Mikołajki (pronounced Me-ho-why-key), the lakes and forests were unforgettable.

I arrived shortly after the sun had surrendered to an almost-full moon and went to check into the guest house I'd booked on the phone on the way. With regret, they'd had to release my room an hour earlier, as they weren't sure I was coming and I couldn't explain I'd be later than expected. But they'd found me a room a few doors down which was the perfect size for me and a quarter of the price, so everything's worked out great. The boy's luck is back.

I found a great pub, with a Polish dude outside onstage with a guitar. He opened with what sounded like an Irish song, in Polish, and then moved onto more traditional but lively songs. I couldn't understand a word, but it was great fun to watch the locals clap and sing along. And to hear "Wild Rover" in Polish later in the night and laugh about it with the locals was an unexpected and beautiful bonus.

14 August: Mikołajki

I woke up with a vicious hangover, having had a night with a couple of interesting and intelligent Polish girls about life. This was the view from my window this morning.



The girls are around my age, and were 9 years old when communism collapsed here along with the wall in Berlin. They said that everything changed almost immediately and opened up. It still amazes me that this stuff happened in my lifetime.

I rented a kayak, paddled out across the lake for a couple of hours and went for a swim to chase away the bastard behind my eyes. In that introspective thing that comes from time to time, it occurred to me that I'm kind of representing my family and friends on my travels. The beautiful and interesting places are the setting, the context, but it's the people, and the exchange of ideas and histories and cultures, and its opposite number - quiet reflection - that are the thing.



For every sunrise, there's a sunset. And this is tonight's. Shepherd's fuckin' delight, baby.



I had a fun night catching up again briefly with those girls but spoke most of the time to the man mixing my cocktails. He had the contrasting jobs of working in that bar for a few weeks and working on an oil platform in the North Sea off Norway the rest of the time. What a trip! If he could produce oil like he mixes cockies we'd either have permanent global war or permanent global peace. I'm not sure which

15 August: Mikołajki - Warsaw

I've got a flight to Kiev from Warsaw tomorrow so I made the trip down today. As it happens, it's Independence Day here today so there's not much open but happily I don't want to be running around doing lots of touristy things today. Warsaw's bloody big so it would be quite a mission. I came to an internet cafe, and while I've been in here there's been an awesome thunderstorm outside. So I'm sitting here, doing this, having a beer and listening to the karaoke they've got on and having some random banter about tomorrow's rugby. It's all good.

16 August: Warsaw - Kiev

It was interesting to get an aerial view of the Polish countryside on the flight to Kiev. Instead of the square shape you see in fields in many countries, the Polish fields I saw use long, thin, rectangular strips of land which gives the appearance of a massive wood laminate floor.



The instant heat on arrival into Kiev reminded me of Baghdad, as soon as you step from the plane to the terminal bus. At somewhere in the high 30s or low 40s c, the headline temperature wasn't quite as hot, but the humidity made up for it, and more. I've come to Kiev to meet up with a mate from my Baghdad days. He was the front man in the band I was in there, so when I saw him in the arrivals hall the Baghdad parallel was complete, both of us sweaty, excited and, above all, thirsty.

Kiev is unlike any other city I've been to. It's majestic, enormous, confusing and totally intriguing. It's as East as it gets if you're talking about Europe. Coming here with no knowledge of Russian, let alone comprehension of the Cyrillic alphabet, makes this a pretty overwhelming place. It's a little like Bangkok in terms of its size and chaos, and also the temperature for the first couple of days, though they say this is unusual for Kiev. But in Bangkok there are English signs everywhere so it's easy to navigate the city. Not here.



In some ways I think the Cyrillic alphabet is more confusing than, say, Arabic or Urdu. At least with those alphabets you know you've got no chance. But because some characters in the Cyrillic alphabet bear some kind of resemblance to ours, your brain leads you up blind alleys trying to identify how words might sound. In Germany I found it easy to remember a few words, as many have been assimilated into English while others, such as numbers, are similar enough that you can work with them without too much trouble. Estonian is part of the Finno-Ugric family of languages and would be a difficult language to learn, but the alphabet is similar to ours, with a few dots and squiggles thrown into the mix. Latvian and Lithuanian are the 2 surviving Baltic branches of the Indo-European family, and again bear similarity to our alphabet with minor variations. Polish is a bit more of a curve ball, with some pronunciations being very different from what you'd expect, but again the characters themselves are broadly recognisable. With the Cyrillic alphabet, you're pretty much robbed of any such reference point.



So I was very fortunate that my friend has lived and worked in or near this region for years and is fluent in Russian to the point of it being more or less his first language. But why Russian, if we're in Ukraine? It's true that Ukrainian is the official language here, and everyone is taught in Ukrainian. Official announcements and the TV news are delivered in Ukranian. However, the vast majority of Ukrainians use Russian in everyday conversation and don't like to speak Ukrainian. There are "language police" who might check up on businesses, so menus in bars and restaurants are in Ukrainian but almost everyone interacts in Russian, so they jump through the hoops that they have to jump through in order to keep the authorities happy, but in reality Russian is king.



We went to a karaoke bar one night which was one of the more unique and random experiences I've had. The songs were in Russian, so while I couldn't identify any of the songs or the words, it was an eye opener to say the least. The group on the table behind us were half singing, half slurring songs from the old gangster city of Odessa, so we were speculating as to whether they would belt out a couple of numbers and the go launder some money or something. My mate, for his part, sang a few Russian songs, very well, which went down a treat. He'd always told me in Baghdad about how he'd go to karaoke bars in Ukraine, Georgia, Russia or in the Stans and belt out songs in Russian, so it was nice to see the man in action. There were a few songs on the menu in English, so I could have got up and sang something, but I was concerned that if I did, the gangsters on the table behind might have had me "clipped" and buried in cement, so I kept my counsel and happily absorbed the experience.



The next day we went to one of several beaches lining the Dnipro River, which splits the city. The sand was fine, and the water was the perfect temperature for another sweltering day. Joe's girlfriend' Natalia, doesn't speak a word of English so poor Joe had to translate for 3 days, which must have been exhausting.

In the 1930s, under Stalin, a farmer might be visited by a State official, who would ask how much the farmer produced. If the farmer replied, say, 2 tonnes of whatever per year, the State official would say that the farmer had to produce 4 tonnes, of which the first 3.5 went to the State and the farmer could keep the rest. Natalia's grandmother was around 11 years old when starvation nearly claimed her. She went blind and her skin was a dark, almost black colour from malnutrition. Her brother led her 11 kilometres to the nearest hospital, where they took her in. She survived, regained her sight and is alive and well today, as is her brother. Other family members - there were 8 siblings - didn't make it, along with so many others. Yet another tragic but fascinating personal account that's one of millions that make up the crazy history of the region.



One thing that made me laugh was the driving. There would be no point asking a cab driver to get you from A to B as fast as possible - that's the default approach. It's like being in a game of Grand Theft Auto. These guys like driving like maniacs about as much as they like vodka. And they like vodka just fine.



19 August: Kiev - Warsaw - Krakow

By the time I left Kiev, I'd become a little more comfortable with Cyrillic, and found myself able to seek out and identify a few characters. I still think it would take a good while to be anything like comfortable with the whole alphabet, and there's no doubt that learning the language would be a monumental task. I had a great time in Kiev and would recommend it to anyone, though if you can get a guide who can navigate the lingo for you it would be money well spent.

So it was in and out of Warsaw and a late evening arrival into Krakow. And straight in and out for what turned into a late night with some people from the hostel at a good club which was underground with arches with a couple of main rooms. I knew I would party in Krakow but it turned out to be a big session. It was fun dancing on a bar until the sun came up. Krakow's got a nice feel to it and the people are friendly. I was keen to go to the Wieliczka salt mine nearby and would have considered Auschwitz too, but sadly got round to neither. I'll have to come back to Krakow and see it properly.



22 August: Krakow - Zakopane

Zakopane, nestled at the foot of the Tatra mountains, is my last stop on the way to Slovakia. I was looking forward to coming here and hoping to do some hiking in the hills, but the weather's closed in and my foot's giving me grief. I'm going to an area of national park which is said to be spectacular, so I don't feel so bad about missing out here.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

22 July: Berlin - Stockholm - Tallinn

Getting the ferry from Stockholm to Tallinn was a good move. Pistol calm water and postcard coastline turned this voyage from an experience into a privilege. Dusk didn't really fall until around 11, and never truly became night. It was amusing too - the Finns (the Finnish, not half of Crowded House) made a bee-line for the onboard supermarket and stocked up on booze, headed to the outdoor decks and cracked on. I was happy to have a smoke and watch the Baltic float by. I shared a cabin with 3 other guys, 2 of whom didn't speak, and the other who was a Finn but lived between his houses in Sweden and Estonia, and whose name and any other details I couldn't decipher.

Tallinn's old town is picturesque enough, if a little too touristy (posed the tourist...). For a capital city, it's tiny. Quite a contrast after Berlin. I had a wander around for a few hours and went to the beach. I met a lesbian couple from Berlin so had a chat with them about where I'd been while I was there. I didn't try and line one up. You know what I'm talking about.

The one place I really wanted to see was the former KGB Headquarters, but I couldn't find it for love nor money. Being what it is, it may have been ironically located, maybe you had to solve a riddle of some kind to work out where it really was. If I come back after Pärnu I'll have another look.

I'm keen to get out of Tallinn before the stag parties arrive for the weekend, so I'm off south.

24 July: Tallinn - Pärnu

I've thought long and hard about it, and I have to say Estonia's got the most beautiful women in any country I've been to. It takes some doing to trump Brazil, Sweden and Ibiza, but Estonia's a match for anywhere.

I took a cab to the bus station and was picked up by the hottest taxi driver I have ever seen. She was a bit like the taxi driver on Pulp Fiction - she drove like a maniac, was exotic, slightly mad and totally fascinating.

A 2 hour bus ride and you're in Pärnu, on the coast of south western Estonia. It's only a small place, but it's said to be the Ibiza of Estonia. People come here from all over the country to party at weekends, and a fine job they do too. It's not the 24/7 mash up that Ibiza can be, but it's great fun and it's been good to get away from the tourist trail and come to meet locals. The beach is a cracker, massive and covered with white sand, and with stunning women everywhere it doesn't take long to get jesters shoes on. I have to fight the urge to sit there taking pictures of all the women, but I've just managed it. Sorry guys.




Posing and beach volleyball are the 2 distinct but very much related pastimes here. They do both well. Estonians are also very friendly and keen to know about other places. It's not as cheap as you might expect, though. The economy's coming along at a fair clip and prices are not actually that much less than London. It's still well worth your while to visit here. I will be a happy man if Latvia's even half this good.

29 July: Pärnu - Riga

You know you're living a good lifestyle if the worst thing that happens to you in a day is being "forced" to spend a few more hours at the beach. But with my intended bus full and no more for 5 hours, that was the tragedy that befell me. I met a local girl who kept me in Estonia for a day longer than anticipated too, again tough luck.

I arrived in Riga in the evening and headed out to get a feel for the city. I got talking to a dude from Stockholm who was touring with his rock band, "My Machete". An entertaining character, 46 going on 16 and still living some semblance of the dream. Being a front man for a rock band, he found it impossible not to try drawing attention to himself. When it got to throwing nuts at people on surrounding tables, I had to split.

Latvia itself is a gem. Riga was founded in 1201 because the Pope reckoned those Baltic heathens could do with some religion. It's endured centuries of occupation and colonisation by, variously, Russia, Germany, Poland and Sweden. It only declared independence in 1991, so like its neighbours it is relatively recently that it became what it is now, and the transition is still happening. Also, like Tallinn and other cities in the region, there is an old and new town. Although pockets of Riga's Old Town are unloved and falling apart, there's still a surprise around every corner. Even the New Town isn't all that new - much of it was taking shape by the 18th century.

The pace of life seems really relaxed, except the maniac drivers screeching around on the cobbled streets. There are a couple of big open squares lined with cafes where you can soak up the evening sun and some cocktails and watch people wind down. This is much more like how I envisaged a Baltic capital would, and should, be.

And we have this week's Tramp of the Week. This was an easy choice, this guy totally means it. There were a couple of other contenders, but I love his style. He could be in the frame for Ace of Tramps, depending on how the competition measures up further south.

awesome.

1 August: Riga - Liepaja

I had a great time in Riga, met some nice folks at the hostel but was looking to get out of Riga for the weekend (again, before the stag parties flooding in) and meet some locals, and Liepaja's been the perfect place to do it. I guess you'd say it's the Latvian equivalent of Pärnu, the difference being everyone I met here is from here and not somewhere else in Latvia. It's got a lively music scene and if I'd been here last weekend I'd have caught the biggest beach party in the Baltics. Even so, I was still lucky and coming here for the weekend was definitely the right move. There was a good beach party on Friday and I met loads of people there who I also caught up with on Saturday night at a couple of clubs. Really sound people. Again, friendly girls and I ended up staying a couple more days.

So tomorrow it's off to Lithuania, again to a smaller beach town before heading to the capital for the weekend. At least that's if I can get the bus. It's only around 100km away but I think getting there can be tricky sometimes. Fingers crossed I make it, but if I don't it's not the end of the world.

3 August: Liapaja - Palanga

I didn't get off to Lithuania for another couple of days. I met up with a guy I'd met over the weekend, a cool guy, and he drove me around the old and new parts of the city giving me a tour which was good of him. The next day I went for a big walk and checked out an old military prison which had been recommended to me by several people. It was originally a hospital on the biggest naval base the Russians had built in the Baltics at the start of the 20th century but there was a riot and the authorities had nowhere to put the offenders, so they converted the hospital into a prison. And through successive periods of Russian and Gernam occupation of Latvia, that's how the place remained. During Nazi times, alleged traitors, deserters and spies were kept there. Periodically, when enough of them had been sentenced to death by courts martial, a group would be made to kneel in the courtyard. Two rows of Nazi soldiers - one standing, the other kneeling - would shoot from 30m. The standing soldiers took the head shot, the kneeling soldiers the chest. After a while they abandoned this practice and simply shot each offender in the back of the head.



The bus to Palanga, when I got it, was easy enough, just an hour or so and literally cheap as chips. The evening sun had resurfaced by the time I got there so the town was busy with people out enjoying it. My hotel was 3km out of town, an an area for camping and chilling, and maybe a touch further away than I'd have planned ideally but still a fantastic setting despite there being nowhere to eat, drink or meet people.



It's Wednesday and I came back into town for breakfast while it was overcast again, not optimistic about the prospect of getting some sun. Early afternoon turned the tables and it turned into a beautiful day, so I rented a bike and rode through a pine forest to my place and the beach. Very, very mellow, and it made staying a little out of the action an unexpected bonus.

7 August: Palanga - Vilnius

Lithuania's capital is stunning. A beautiful old town meets the stylish new, and everywhere you turn there's another scene that takes your breath away.



It has that kind of homely feel that's sometimes found in a country's second city but not its biggest. I was lucky enough to meet a lot of local people and enjoyed hanging out with them. They're fiercely proud of their country in a way I've not encountered so far on this trip. One guy I'd chatted to in the afternoon of the Friday took me to a real locals' bar so I stayed there and watched the opening ceremony of the Olympics. I cheered when Lithuania's team came out and the locals responded by cheering on NZ. I also went to check out the Frank Zappa memorial. He's got nothing to do with Lithuania, but a group of people that totally buzzed off his music got together and made it happen.







There was no way I could not go to Pacha while in Vilnius; it opened here last year. I'd been to a cocktail bar at the top of a hotel with some locals and then on to the club. Unfortunately the clubs here have a "face control" policy so they only let foreigners and only the best looking locals in, so it was less authentic than I wanted. Still, I had fun.



Saturday night I ventured out to another club that had been recommended to me and which doesn't have a face control policy, so it was a lot of fun and again I met some really good people. Another late night so I was feeling the pace by Sunday. I sat in a cafe which is in a sort of open area just off one of the main streets, and was treated to the random sight of about 3 dozen people dancing in the swing/1930's sort of style. It was really cool to see, I have to say. They were so talented. It's not often you get entertainment this random and for free. That night I met up with a friend and we hung out the next day at a really pretty picture-postcard town called Trakai, which is situated on an amazingly calm lake. And then it was off to get the overnight bus to Poland.

The Baltics have been great. Despite the difficult histories of these countries, the people have been cool everywhere I've been and I'd have no hesitation recommending anywhere here. It's a little more expensive than I'd foreseen, and inflation is one of the biggest issues affecting all 3 countries. It's preventing them from adopting the Euro too, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. I haven't been to places where the scenery is overwhelming, though it's been pleasant enough. For me, it's the people that have made the Baltics, and also the mixture of interesting old-old buildings and cities, and the interesting, if kind of harrowing histories and the fact that these countries have only been independent less than 20 years. Next up is Poland, which will be quieter for me as I need to chill for a bit, and I'm looking forward to it.

But first, it's time for Tramp of the Week! This, my friends, is technique.



I felt so bad about taking her picture that I dropped some money in her cup for services she doesn't know she's rendered.

Amsterdam, Hamburg, Berlin

14 July: London - Amsterdam

Amsterdam seemed the ideal place to start this trip, and that's how it turned out. I'd been there a few times before and had some pretty messy weekends there, so I didn't feel the need to go crazy this time. I've had more trips than I care to remember, when I started with a big effort on the first day/night and that set the tone for the rest of the trip. My mind and body can't maintain that level for 3 months, not any more, so I'm looking at a slow start for this one.

One thing that always gets me about Amsterdam is what a sweet place it would be to live. The pace of, and attitude towards, life is relaxed. It's got that "anything goes" outlook, a bit Thailand but without old, fat white men shagging kids. They've just introduced a smoking ban in cafes and bars, including coffee shops. So now, while the rest of the world's authorities check your cigarettes for weed, in Amsterdam they check for tobacco but have no beef with the weed. Beautiful.

16 July: Amsterdam - Hamburg

Hamburg kept the relaxed vibe going for a couple more days. I was staying at Reeperbahn, which is home to what they say is the biggest red light district in Europe. It was pretty lively but I didn't fancy forking out half my travel budget to go and stare at implants. Hamburg was quite pretty, just what you'd expect of an old German city and the kind of place your Mum would like.

When I was working in London recently, I worked near London Bridge so would often see those open top buses ferrying brave and desperate tourists around through driving rain and howling gales. There they'd sit on the open top deck, gritting their teeth as they lined up the next photo in the face of a Force Five. And I'd laugh and mock, safe in the certainty that you'd never get me on one of those. But in Hamburg, I became that guy. It wasn't raining but that's no excuse. To be fair, it was a useful way to get my bearings to be able to have a walk around later. I had a look at the usual stuff but there was one unusual museum in the form of a U Boat. I wasn't sure whether to feel underwhelmed or not - I'd never been on a sub before and the engineering involved to put one of those things together was impressive, but it was made by the Russians in 1976. so was too old to be technologically amazing and too young to have a particularly interesting story.

I saw a great tramp in Hamburg too, sleeping on a bench. He was edgy - a dude who'd made his choice and was sticking by it. Unfortunately I didn't get a picture of him. I'd like to have a running "Tramp of the Week" feature, ending with awarding the best one from the whole trip the title "Ace of Tramps". I'm not sure what the tramp scene's like in eastern Europe - watch this space.

Another thing I'll be keeping an eye out for is amusing street signs. This one seemed to give some pretty sensible instructrions. Not sure what the last thing is though?!

18 July: Hamburg - Berlin

I have to say, Berlin's one of the best cities I've been to and I'd happily come again. The first thing that got me about it was the scale of everything. Berlin's spread over an area of 892 square km, and makes use of the space. On street after street you encounter imposing, impressive buildings that leave you in no doubt about Berlin's cultural and historical richness. Berlin's as much a statement as it is a city. Music, art, trade, war - evidence of all the strands which, when woven together, somehow make a city more significant, is all over the place. I'm not really one for churches, and don't see myself going inside many in the next couple of months, but when I look at some in their own right - cosmetically, instead of what they represent - I have to admire them. They're all over Berlin.

I went up the Fernsehturm ("TV Tower") which gives an unrivalled aerial view of the city. From here you could see how abruptly East meets West, and the contrast between the two. It seems incredible that two such differing places can have existed, right next to each other, not even 20 years ago. I get the feeling I'll have a similar sensation in a few countries I visit. The East is grim. Soviet style tower blocks lined up like dominoes, devoid of any colour or expression. Living here during the partition of Berlin must have been intolerable. Dozens of people died trying to break from East to West. One day, I needed to get the U-Bahn (tube/metro) from where I was staying in the East, towards the West side of the city. There was something up with the trains and none were coming, so I took another route on the S-Bahn. No chance of that choice a few years ago.

I nearly became Open Top Bus tourist again, but took it down a peg or two and did a boat trip instead. They gave us some headphones to listen to the blurb about each place we passed, but the English commentary had been done by a dalek, or perhaps Stephen Hawking, so I stuck some music on instead, put my feet up and floated around Berlin. I recommend it. About the only other thing I'd dwell on specifically is Brandenburg Gate. With my limited sense of history I thought it was built as part of the wall, but it's been there a touch longer than that. When you read about it, it reinforces the sensation you get about how long Berlin's been around.

I liked the German word for barbequeing:

And, related to the "amusing signs" I will also keep an eye out for signs that are the same of friends' names. Mina, this one's for you buddy.

You could probably spend a year here and still not fully appreciate what Berlin is, what it's been and what it's given in between. But it's further east I'm really looking, so with a sense of excitement, that's where I'm heading next.

Private security companies

Last week there was an incident in which a private security company killed 8 and wounded 13 civilians on the streets of Baghdad. The convoy was returning to the green zone when a bomb or rocket went off close by, and the security personnel opened fire on the street. This was by no means the first such incident - there have been many of these. The company concerned was Blackwater, a US based company. The Iraqi authorities have reacted by saying enough is enough and it will expel Blackwater and its employees from Iraq, as well as prosecuting the individuals involved. Blackwater is a huge company and has the contract to provide protection to US State department personnel, including the US Ambassador, in all movements outside the green zone. Its expulsion would be a significant problem for the US if it happens.

I think it would serve them right. Blackwater has long been the company that likes to think it can operate above the law. I would estimate no less than 70% of the incidents involving a private security company killing or wounding civilians on the streets of Baghdad have been Blackwater. They didn't even bother to get a licence until a few months ago. The company has ties to the Republican party and basically has patronage from the US government which might explain why it thinks its above the system. The actions of Blackwater have always cast a shadow over the entire private security industry in Iraq. The vast majority of companies do operate professionally and are not the trigger happy mercenaries the media like to portray. Unfortunately, this latest incident will likely lead to a review by the Iraq authorities of all companies' licences, so it might well be that some other companies get kicked out even if they have operated with restraint and professionalism, and within the law.

It remains to be seen whether Blackwater really will get kicked out. Condoleeza Rice has personally intervened to try and stop this from happening. The importance of this can't be made clear enough - this is a real litmus test of how independent the Iraqi government really is from the US administration. Everyone in Baghdad knows that Blackwater is by far the worst offender and that it has always operated above the law. Whether the Iraqis go ahead and expel the company will be one of the clearest signs yet of whether they are really able to dictate their own policies independently of US wishes.

Part of the problem is the Iraqis' own making though. They were supposed to pass a law to regulate the private security industry but have failed to do so. I saw a draft law several months ago and it was a shambles. It conflicted with other laws and had inconsistencies in itself, and was going to be a total failure if it became law. I warned of this in an address to an audience with many members of PSCs and Iraqi officials from the Ministry of Interior, which is the government agency responsible for overseeing the industry. That was months ago, and we still haven't seen a next draft. The sooner they pass a law that works, the sooner they will be able to regulate the industry properly and get rid of companies without having to wait for incidents like the one last week.

Another issue at work is self interest of government ministers and people connected with the Ministry of Interior. In the last 12 months around 6 or 7 foreign PSCs have been issued with a licence from the Ministry of Interior, against about 20 odd Iraqi PSCs. The Iraq companies are all owned by government ministers and people in the Ministry of Interior. Clearly, they're trying to freeze out the foreign companies so that the contracts all go to the Iraqi companies. Aside from the corruption of this, it will spell disaster for the performance of those contracts. But hey, it's their country and we weren't invited so I can't honestly say we can claim any moral high ground. It's just a shame that the companies who do a good job protecting reconstruction contractors, NGOs, Iraqi officials and others could be sidelined despite doing a good job under difficult circumstances. There are many of you who read this and say "well they're only mercenaries anyway" but that's simplistic and ignores the reality not portrayed in the media. Guys like Blackwater behave like mercenaries, not the industry as a whole.

And, I should add, the vast majority of employees working for most of the companies in the industry are Iraqi. There are many foreigners, but mostly it's Iraqis doing the job. That's probably something else the newspapers don't mention.

The Pull Out Method (Pt. II)

The long anticipated report to Congress from America's commanding General and its Ambassador to Iraq has finally passed. It looks to have been a waste of time in some ways - looking at the response of the Democratic senators, they've long since made their minds up about things so the last couple of days' testimony wasn't going to change a great deal in reality. Democrats want the US to pull troops out of Iraq as soon as possible and in any event to have as many as possible out of Iraq before January 2009, when they are fairly likely to take over the White House and it becomes their headache.

General Petaeus predicted that troop levels should be able to return by next summer to the pre-surge levels of 130,000, because violence in Baghdad and the western Anbar province has dropped. This ignores the fact that violence overall - if you take into account cities outside of Baghdad - has slightly increased. Perhaps more importantly, the US cannot maintain current troop levels beyond another 8 months. Rotations have been extended time and again and the strain is biting. The purpose of the testimony before Congress is to make it look like Bush has the ability to choose when to reduce troop numbers.

One thing I found interesting was the amount of mention given to Al Qaeda. It roughly goes, "we have been successful in pushing Al Qaeda out of Anbar and if we were to pull troops out then Al Qaeda would take control and be a big threat to the US". That's just ridiculous. First off, it was the Sunni tribal leaders' decision that they didn't want AQ in their area anymore that resulted in the stabilisation of Anbar. Instead of fighting against the US, the Sunni tribal chiefs joined forces with them to get rid of AQ. Second, although the headline violence is often committed by AQ (truck bombs etc) AQ probably only accounts for about 5 - 10% of the insurgency in Iraq. Third, Iraq has a Shia majority population and government (and security forces) and Iran next door so it's laughable to suggest that AQ, which is largely Sunni, would be able to overrun Iraq.

Politically, the situation is dire. Maliki's "unity" government is a shambles and reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites is non existent.

ironic

So I spend several months in Baghdad and don't get a scratch, and 2 days into my holiday I get hit by a car. It'll be 2 or 3 months before I can go back to Baghdad but will try and write something soon. There's enough to write about.

Peace
S

The pull out method

Again it's been a long time since I wrote. That's partly because I've been busy when I've been here in Baghdad, partly because I've been away sometimes and partly because I don't know where to start. There's so much going on here and you can hardly pick up a western newspaper (or an Eastern one probably) without there being something about Iraq in there. Since I last wrote, there have been some potential laws referred to the Iraqi parliament, Tony Blair's mercifully departed office, several hundred Iraqis and dozens of coalition soldiers have been killed, support for Bush's surge has been collapsing, and Bush commuted "Scooter" Libby's jail sentence for obstructing an investigation into the leaking the identity of a CIA operative whose husband discredited one of Bush's pre-war claims about Iraq's "WMD". And there's been much more, but that's enough to list for now.

So..... the surge. Is it "working"? Is it time to pull the troops out? I was at a wedding in Sweden recently and everyone I met posed the question and had their own view on it. But is it possible to answer that question yet? I don't believe so. There continue to be headline-grabbing attacks now and then. About a month ago, a Shia shrine in Samarra was bombed, again, toppling 2 minarets and causing extensive damage. This was the same shrine whose golden dome was bombed in February 2006. That attack was what is widely understood to have really kicked off the sectarian trouble that still rumbles on today. There was a curfew imposed after last month's bombing for 3 days, as the authorities feared it would cause another increase in sectarian bloodshed. I never bought that, because the level of violence is already at a level that would be difficult to increase significantly further. There may have been a slight increase but I think that is mainly due to Al Qaeda wanting to put as much pressure on the US as possible in advance of September, when General Petraeus is due to report to Congress on whether the surge is working.

And that pressure is shown by high profile bombs such as the truck bomb that exploded in Kirkuk on Saturday, the death toll for which could top 150.

Not helping the situation is the continued uselessness of the Iraqi government. The Kurdish Regional Government has been pressing ahead and has agreed its own oil legislation and agreed a revenue sharing draft law with the federal government in Baghdad. The process isn't going anywhere fast in Baghdad however. It is likely at this stage that the Kurds will pass their own oil law allowing them to sign agreements with foreign oil companies, even before the Iraqi government passes its own oil and gas law (which was almost agreed in February but is now being rejected by the Kurds because the Sunnis and Shiites basically re-wrote it at a later conference). There's talk of making the revenue sharing law dependent on the federal oil and gas law, so this will take a while longer to be passed. There's little or no parliamentary activity going on at the moment anyway. Many of the MPs are out of the country for summer so raising a quorum is not necessarily going to be possible. Which could be lucky for Maliki, as a vote of no confidence is apparently being proposed against him in 5 days' time. It's questionable whether that vote will be passed, as explained better by the excellent Juan Cole blog.

So all in all I think it is too early to tell whether the surge will work. It's only in the last couple of weeks that the troop numbers have hit their peak, and violence does continue, albeit that some of it has spread from Baghdad to other places. I've heard it called the "water bed effect" whereby if you push down in one place, others rise. There are good signs in some other parts of the country, though. The western Anbar province was once a hotbed of Al Qaeda in Iraq activity but the Sunni tribal leaders there have had enough of Al Qaeda and are now fighting with the coalition troops to drive them out. That was unfathomable at the end of last year. So I think more time is needed to see how it will play out.

The Americans I have spoken to are very divided on the issue. Some think the troops should get out now, while others think that if that happens, a full blown civil war will erupt. Timing is everything though. It would be a sad irony if the surge, which is probably about the first thing Bush has got potentially right, is scuppered now by a Democratic controlled Congress which only starts asserting itself about 4 years too late, or by Republicans distancing themselves from Bush. It's unfortunate that what happens will be dictated not by events on the ground here, but political necessities in Washington. What you do clearly see now is how isolated Bush is becoming. Congressional delegations and people running for the Democratic or Republican presidential nominations for the next election are making trips out here to speak to people and get their own impression of events on the ground. I think John McCain is over here at the moment so that he can go back and come out with a statement of some sort that improves his chances of nomination. Whatever happens with troop numbers, Maliki has to go if there's to be any progress.

More on the hapless and cretinous parliament: on June 10 the parliament voted to change the Speaker of the Council of Representatives after one MP got his bodyguards to beat up another MP when he walked past his office. As the person who sent me the report said, "so, Iraqi democracy coming along nicely".

Mind you, with Bush commuting Scooter Libby's sentence to shut him up, democracy in America isn't exactly perfect. (Clinton was no saint either - he issued 140 full pardons in his final hours as president, among them to Marc Rich, whose lawyer was.... scooter Libby. If you're not too bored with reading about corrupt bastards looking after themselves in Washington you can read more here.)

An inside job?

The adviser who was kidnapped yesterday was at the Ministry of Finance as part of a process to implement transparency in government procurement. At the moment, ministers and flunkies are taking millions of dollars in corrupt payments to influence the awarding of contracts. So, this new system to make the process more transparent means a lot of people stand to lose a lot of dead presidents. All of which points the finger at involvement not just within the Iraqi Police, but also the Ministry of Finance.

The Guardian reports today that the Ministry of Interior "became politicised by Shia extremists under the previous minister, Bayan Jabr, a leader of the Badr organisation and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq - Iraq's largest Shia political party. Mr Jabr encouraged members of the Badr brigade to take up key posts in the ministry and subvert its operations." The Ministry of Interior is one of the worst arms of government you could imagine. Corruption is rife and sectarianism is evident in everything it does. The article goes on to report that Babyan Jabr has moved to the Ministry of Finance but still controls the MOI's budget and police salaries. If that's not a man with likely involvement I don't know who is. The Ministry of Finance was where the kidnapping took place and it's clear that the adviser was targeted from the fact that the kidnappers stormed into the room shouting "where are the foreigners?". Add the police involvement (controlled by the MOI) and a picture emerges.

The Times reported that a Mahdi Army official denied their involvement but said that they "called the Iraqi police in the area and they told us it was uniformed men speaking with Sunni accents". So either the police or the Mahdi Army are trying to blame it on the Sunnis but that doesn't seem remotely credible. For one, the two Ministries involved (Finance and Interior) are both Shia controlled, and the Ministry of Finance is on the edge of Sadr City, a Shia area. There's no way the Sunnis would have had the access to the area to conduct an operation like that. Look at the connection between Babyan Jabr and the Badr Brigade and you have a more likely scenario.

So hopefully the Garda guys and the BearingPoint guy will come back alive.

What a place.

Another Day in Paradise (not in the Phil Collins sense...)

Another day in paradise. A finance expert and his security team were kidnapped from the Ministry of Finance this morning. This is the first time a Westerner has been kidnapped from a Ministry as far as I know and the scale of the operation is such that it's looking likely the police themselves were involved. That ought to be news that's more good than bad in the bigger scheme of things, because if the police were involved the outcome will more likely be a peaceful one. If the Sunnis or Al Qaeda are the snatchers, less so. Police involvement would suggest a Shia angle so there is hope that this would be a political move. It should never have happened, and there will be obvious questions as to how this happened, but they can be asked and answered after the fate of the man and his PSD is known. As it goes, I've met him and probably at least one of the PSD guys that were taken, and hope personally as well as morally that all will work out.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran sat down over a cuppa for the first time since 1980. The only thing on the agenda was Iraq which is a good thing. No bleating about uranium enrichment from the US; no whining about spies within its borders from Iran. Whether or not these talks produce anything of substance is important, and on track record of late you'd have to be a pessimist. But that these talks are even taking place would have been unimaginable not so long ago. It's clear evidence, if any were needed, that the power of Cheney and Bush is giving way to a more conciliatory train of thought within the US Government. And about time too. There has to be a recognition that, whether or not dialogue with Iran and Syria is likely to produce results, the mere possibility is reason enough to have a crack.

As for me, I've been fine. There's been a fair amount of incoming but not right where I am and not such that I feel threatened. I can't recall whether I ever mentioned it, but I joined/formed a band a while ago and we're having a lot of fun. There may be some people who read this and shake their heads and say "shame on you for partying it up". This is a difficult environment so you have to try and bring a little familiarity and humanity. We played on a villa's roof on Friday and it was great setting up the gear when it was still light, looking to the background and seeing all the date palms and a couple of landmarks. One of the more unique gigs you could ever play, as ours all are.



I've not been so busy with work lately so have been watching a recent US TV series called Deadwood. It's about a US goldrush town in the 1870s that was lawless and became annexed to the Dakota territory. (To read about the series click here, or about the place itself click here). There are certainly similarities between that place and Baghdad and it was interesting to think about that. Another interesting thing I came across (well I find it interesting anyway) is an article I read today that was written in 1920 by T. E. Lawrence. You can read the text here and again it's amazing the similarities between the circumstances of 87 years ago and those existing now and in the past 4 years. The patterns of colonialism and/or the attempts, by whatever means and with whichever intentions, seem to be fairly constant. Which makes you hope on the one hand if things will eventually work themselves out, but wonder on the other why the fuck we never learn from our mistakes.

The long goodbye

At last, Tony Blair is off. He came to Baghdad unannounced yesterday for a last chat with the big guns here and 3 mortars went off in the IZ just as he was arriving. He went down to Basra for a "morale boosting" session with British troops down there and again a mortar went off. It's funny reading suggestions that he may have been targeted - if he really was targeted there would have been 10 times as many projectiles coming in. There were a lot last week and apparently the week before, with some injuries and two Iraqis killed. It seems to have quietened down a bit the last few days; in fact it seems to have been a few quiet days generally across Baghdad. Only a temporary respite, no doubt, but a welcome one.

The draft oil and gas law seems to have taken a few steps backwards. A significant part of the draft law is its annexes, which set out who controls which oil fields. There was a meeting in Dubai a few weeks ago at which the draft of the annexes was changed considerably, and the Kurdistan Regional Government won't back the law as it currently stands. So the law itself is a long, long way from being passed.

I joined a band a while ago which is proving, for me, to be the difference between tolerating being in Baghdad and positively enjoying it. We played a few gigs at various places, which were a mixture of private compounds or villas. We've been asked to play the UK and US embassies as well so those are a couple of gigs to look forward to. We were supposed to play the US Embassy last week but in the event we couldn't as our bass player wasn't back from leave in time. That was a relief in some ways because of the relative danger of playing a gig there - it would have been outside, by the pool, which gets hit by mortars from time to time. Would have been a hell of a buzz though.

In the US, finally Paul Wolfowitz has resigned as head of the World Bank. It's incredible that he was ever appointed, being as it was a major "up yours" to all those who opposed the invasion of Iraq, seeing as he was a chief architect of it. It's incredible too that he fought so hard to stay in the job when it was clear that the vast majority of the Bank's staff wanted him out and that he had clearly breached the Bank's rules on conflicts of interest. But that's symptomatic of the Bush crowd's arrogance. The US Attorney General, Alberto Gonzales, is in a similar predicament now. He was, it seems, instrumental in the sacking of 8 federal prosecutors in the US who failed to toe the Bush Administration's line on policy matters. That action badly undermines the separation between the legislature and the judiciary which is fundamental to valid democracies. It's probably only a matter of time before he will be fired or forced to resign, but it's another example of one of the neocon cabal that's grimly hanging on despite clear evidence of not being fit for the job.

It's getting warmer here by the day. Supposed to hit 42 celcius on Tuesday so it's getting towards the 3 months when it won't be below 40 and often gets to 50 or more. Shame there's no decent beach around here....