Welcome

This blog starts from the time I spent in Baghdad 2006 to 2007, when I wanted to record some thoughts and give friends the inside mail on a crazy environment. Since then, after some time out from a broken ankle and between times working in London, I've been on the road again around eastern Europe, NZ and South America. So far. This continues with the hope of telling anyone who's interested about the new places I'm seeing and the people who make them interesting.

On the right you can find links to previous posts. I need to figure out how to get the order of current posts right. Maybe having used this for a few years it's the kind of thing I should have sussed...

Thanks for looking. Enjoy!

Tuesday 18 September 2007

Private security companies

Last week there was an incident in which a private security company killed 8 and wounded 13 civilians on the streets of Baghdad. The convoy was returning to the green zone when a bomb or rocket went off close by, and the security personnel opened fire on the street. This was by no means the first such incident - there have been many of these. The company concerned was Blackwater, a US based company. The Iraqi authorities have reacted by saying enough is enough and it will expel Blackwater and its employees from Iraq, as well as prosecuting the individuals involved. Blackwater is a huge company and has the contract to provide protection to US State department personnel, including the US Ambassador, in all movements outside the green zone. Its expulsion would be a significant problem for the US if it happens.

I think it would serve them right. Blackwater has long been the company that likes to think it can operate above the law. I would estimate no less than 70% of the incidents involving a private security company killing or wounding civilians on the streets of Baghdad have been Blackwater. They didn't even bother to get a licence until a few months ago. The company has ties to the Republican party and basically has patronage from the US government which might explain why it thinks its above the system. The actions of Blackwater have always cast a shadow over the entire private security industry in Iraq. The vast majority of companies do operate professionally and are not the trigger happy mercenaries the media like to portray. Unfortunately, this latest incident will likely lead to a review by the Iraq authorities of all companies' licences, so it might well be that some other companies get kicked out even if they have operated with restraint and professionalism, and within the law.

It remains to be seen whether Blackwater really will get kicked out. Condoleeza Rice has personally intervened to try and stop this from happening. The importance of this can't be made clear enough - this is a real litmus test of how independent the Iraqi government really is from the US administration. Everyone in Baghdad knows that Blackwater is by far the worst offender and that it has always operated above the law. Whether the Iraqis go ahead and expel the company will be one of the clearest signs yet of whether they are really able to dictate their own policies independently of US wishes.

Part of the problem is the Iraqis' own making though. They were supposed to pass a law to regulate the private security industry but have failed to do so. I saw a draft law several months ago and it was a shambles. It conflicted with other laws and had inconsistencies in itself, and was going to be a total failure if it became law. I warned of this in an address to an audience with many members of PSCs and Iraqi officials from the Ministry of Interior, which is the government agency responsible for overseeing the industry. That was months ago, and we still haven't seen a next draft. The sooner they pass a law that works, the sooner they will be able to regulate the industry properly and get rid of companies without having to wait for incidents like the one last week.

Another issue at work is self interest of government ministers and people connected with the Ministry of Interior. In the last 12 months around 6 or 7 foreign PSCs have been issued with a licence from the Ministry of Interior, against about 20 odd Iraqi PSCs. The Iraq companies are all owned by government ministers and people in the Ministry of Interior. Clearly, they're trying to freeze out the foreign companies so that the contracts all go to the Iraqi companies. Aside from the corruption of this, it will spell disaster for the performance of those contracts. But hey, it's their country and we weren't invited so I can't honestly say we can claim any moral high ground. It's just a shame that the companies who do a good job protecting reconstruction contractors, NGOs, Iraqi officials and others could be sidelined despite doing a good job under difficult circumstances. There are many of you who read this and say "well they're only mercenaries anyway" but that's simplistic and ignores the reality not portrayed in the media. Guys like Blackwater behave like mercenaries, not the industry as a whole.

And, I should add, the vast majority of employees working for most of the companies in the industry are Iraqi. There are many foreigners, but mostly it's Iraqis doing the job. That's probably something else the newspapers don't mention.

Wednesday 12 September 2007

The Pull Out Method (Pt. II)

The long anticipated report to Congress from America's commanding General and its Ambassador to Iraq has finally passed. It looks to have been a waste of time in some ways - looking at the response of the Democratic senators, they've long since made their minds up about things so the last couple of days' testimony wasn't going to change a great deal in reality. Democrats want the US to pull troops out of Iraq as soon as possible and in any event to have as many as possible out of Iraq before January 2009, when they are fairly likely to take over the White House and it becomes their headache.

General Petaeus predicted that troop levels should be able to return by next summer to the pre-surge levels of 130,000, because violence in Baghdad and the western Anbar province has dropped. This ignores the fact that violence overall - if you take into account cities outside of Baghdad - has slightly increased. Perhaps more importantly, the US cannot maintain current troop levels beyond another 8 months. Rotations have been extended time and again and the strain is biting. The purpose of the testimony before Congress is to make it look like Bush has the ability to choose when to reduce troop numbers.

One thing I found interesting was the amount of mention given to Al Qaeda. It roughly goes, "we have been successful in pushing Al Qaeda out of Anbar and if we were to pull troops out then Al Qaeda would take control and be a big threat to the US". That's just ridiculous. First off, it was the Sunni tribal leaders' decision that they didn't want AQ in their area anymore that resulted in the stabilisation of Anbar. Instead of fighting against the US, the Sunni tribal chiefs joined forces with them to get rid of AQ. Second, although the headline violence is often committed by AQ (truck bombs etc) AQ probably only accounts for about 5 - 10% of the insurgency in Iraq. Third, Iraq has a Shia majority population and government (and security forces) and Iran next door so it's laughable to suggest that AQ, which is largely Sunni, would be able to overrun Iraq.

Politically, the situation is dire. Maliki's "unity" government is a shambles and reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites is non existent.